Twister

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The “too easy to get a licence” argument doesn’t necessarily hold up to scrutiny, to be fair. Andrew Bentley, co-founder and CEO of regulatory technology startup LiSense, is one who rejects the suggestion.

“There are significant checks on individuals and businesses before a licence is granted,” he says. “The UK Gambling Commission has set out what it expects. If you want a licence in the UK, you need to meet those expectations.”

Bentley believes regulated operators are genuinely trying to do the right thing but says some mistakes could be mitigated through better automation and continuous monitoring. Enforcement statements also provide lessons that businesses should use to test their own exposure.

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Commercial sports betting generated just under $17 billion in nationwide revenue in 2025, which is why Davenport asserts that the “stakes of this case are exceptionally high”. Kalshi and Polymarket alone posted more than $45 billion in trading volume, which is similar but not identical to betting revenue, in August. That was a 15% decline from July, although that drop is attributed to the conclusion of the Fifa World Cup tournament that month per Yahoo! Finance.

The American Gaming Association estimates that the exchanges have siphoned more than $1.3 billion in would-be tax revenue from states. One of the AGA’s primary spokespeople pin its fight against prediction markets is former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, who championed the PASPA case to the Supreme Court.

As with PASPA, this matter revolves heavily around federalism versus states’ rights. Traditional sports betting is governed by individual state regulators with varying laws and regulations. Federal derivatives are regulated by the CFTC, which has fully embraced prediction markets under US President Donald Trump after rejecting them in previous administrations.

How to play Twister

The research also identified content that associates betting with investments and the possibility of income.

In one of his Instagram stories, speaking directly to the camera, Pedro (a fictitious name for a “professional gambler”) shares a “unique opportunity”. He says that he is going to release a “super promotion for a premium group, which has higher odds”.

The normal price for access to the Telegram group would be BRL397 ($77.18) per month. But, exclusively on that day, he would release both groups together for “only BRL14.91 per month on the annual plan”. This group is the main product sold by Pedro, where he publishes sports predictions, tips on betting operators and higher-value betting odds.