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With all that in mind, it’s not surprising that Macquarie expects sports event contracts will drive approximately 80% of taker volume this year, but Beynon sees other categories growing over the long term.
“We expect non-sports categories such as economics, politics, crypto, and entertainment to gain share over time,” says the analyst.
Prediction market operators are on legal losing streaks, confirming that Beynon is onto something when he says the regulatory environment is the biggest risk facing the industry.
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Meanwhile, Stake continues to feature on the sleeve of Everton’s kits, despite ceasing operations in the UK in early 2025 amid a Gambling Commission investigation into its advertising.
Other clubs that hold agreements with unlicensed operators include Chelsea (8XBet), Tottenham Hotspur (VSBet) and Nottingham Forest (FUN88).
Entain highlighted data from H2 Gambling Capital that warned black market stakes in the UK are expected to nearly double from £17 billion ($22.7 billion) in 2025 to over £33 billion by 2028.
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Jefferies described market makers as the ecosystem’s “liquidity backbone”. They post executable bids and offers, manage inventory and provide prices when customer activity is heavily weighted to one side.
The analysts estimated that an operator capturing a one-cent spread and managing its exposure successfully could generate net economics of approximately $1.69 on a $100 trade. Returns are not guaranteed: adverse price movements and unresolved inventory can offset or exceed income from spreads, rebates and liquidity incentives.
The operational infrastructure available to these new firms, however, remains underdeveloped. Gonzalez contrasts prediction markets with equities, where trading businesses can use prime brokers, clearinghouses and standardised systems such as FIX.